How often do favourites win in horse racing?

Across all British racing, the favourite wins approximately 30–35% of the time. A twenty-year study covering 2002 to 2021 put the figure at roughly 34%, with the second favourite winning around 20% and the third about 13%. Combined, the top three in the market account for 65–70% of all winners. Performance varies by price: odds-on favourites win approximately 59% of races, while those at 8/1 or longer manage only about 8%. At the 2024 Grand National Festival, favourites won 7 of 21 races — in line with the historical average. Despite their high win rate, backing all favourites blindly returns roughly 93p in the pound — a 7% loss over time. The edge comes from identifying which favourites represent value and which are inflated by public money.

What is the easiest way to pick a winner in horse racing?

There is no shortcut, but there is a four-step framework that covers the essentials. First, narrow the field: focus on the top five in the betting market, where 75–80% of winners originate. Second, check conditions: filter by going preference and draw bias, eliminating horses unsuited to today's surface or stall position. Third, compare ability: use speed figures to identify which horses have achieved the class par required to win this race. Fourth, assess the price: estimate each contender's approximate win probability and compare it to the odds — only bet when the price exceeds your assessment. This process takes fifteen to twenty minutes per race once familiar with the tools.

Does the going really affect which horse wins?

Emphatically, yes. Going is one of the most significant variables in race outcomes. An eight-year analysis of over 6,000 UK races found that 71–85% are run on some variant of Good ground, meaning races on Soft, Heavy or Firm represent a substantial departure from the norm that reshuffles the form book. Academic research from Nottingham Trent University confirmed that horse speeds peak on firm ground and show significantly greater variability on soft ground — meaning the gap between horses who handle soft conditions and those who do not widens considerably. Any horse on your shortlist should have its going record checked before you commit.

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